As the drone industry enters a transformative era, the second term for Donald Trump could introduce pivotal shifts in regulation, domestic manufacturing and global competition across all aspects of the economy. But what does the second Trump presidency mean for the drone industry in particular?

The stakes are high for the United States drone industry in particular, which is straddling both opportunities and challenges in maintaining ability to edge in the global unmanned aerial systems (UAS) market. Will possible bans on Chinese drones help or hurt drone innovation? Will prices rise or fall? Will the speed of approvals pick up, or will the industry devolve into chaos? While no one has a crystal ball, a recent slew of cabinet picks and naming of other advisors provides a pretty strong indication of what we can expect from the drone industry over the next four years.

To understand what to expect from Trump’s term, it’s practical to look at his first term. During that time, we got the 2018 launch of the Integration Pilot Program (IPP), which ultimately evolved into the FAA BEYOND Program, which remains ongoing today. 

So with that, here’s what you can expect under the next Trump presidency:

New policies and regulatory frameworks

BVLOS

The FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024, which was signed into law in May 2024, established a timeline for finalizing Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) rules, with draft proposals already underway.

The final BVLOS rules are set for the end of 2025. That marks a critical moment for the drone industry, as BVLOS operations that sit at the center of pretty much all drone-related U.S. regulatory framework.

In recent years, the Federal Aviation Administration has been approving more BVLOS operations for companies. That includes major drone delivery providers like Wing, as well as up-and-coming consumer drone delivery services like Matternet’s Silicon Valley drone deliveries. For now, individual approvals allow the FAA to collect datasets that are crucial for developing a standardized ruleset.

But still, creating a nationwide framework is a complex challenge. And if history is any indication, that may take longer than a single presidential term to finalize.

Swarm drones

With use cases such as drone delivery or drone light shows, one operator operates multiple drones at once. This is currently also run on a case-by-case basis, where operators must get FAA approval to do so.

But James McDanolds, Program Chair, School of Uncrewed Technology at Sonoran Desert Institute, expects approvals to expand.

“Looking forward, as more data is gathered from operators and organizations working under Multi-UAS Certificates of Waivers, I anticipate a push towards developing a standardized ruleset for such operations,” he said. “This would be critical in maintaining the U.S.’s competitive edge in the industry.”

Reduced reliance on foreign-made drones (and maybe even bans)

One of the most contentious issues facing the U.S. drone industry is its reliance on foreign-made components, particularly from China. During Trump’s first term, his administration restricted Chinese drones in government projects, citing national security risks.

“I anticipate that the coming term will see increased efforts to bolster U.S.-based component manufacturing, laying the groundwork for a stronger domestic presence in the UAS industry,” McDanolds said.

Those policies could deepen in a second term, aligning with legislative measures such as the American Security Drone Act of 2023, which aims to reduce dependence on international suppliers.

In fact, McDanolds said he expects to see further support for legislative measures like the S.473 – American Security Drone Act of 2023

“However, a significant challenge remains: the current ecosystem for drone production in the U.S. is hampered by a limited number of component suppliers compared to international competitors,” he said. “Overcoming this hurdle will require not just policy support but also strategic investments in domestic manufacturing capabilities and supply chain infrastructure.”

That said, there’s been growing momentum to strengthen U.S.-based manufacturing. Much of that has been led by Republicans. Notable among them is Rep. Elise Stefanik, who was recently named Trump’s UN Ambassador nominee. Stefanik has been a vocal critic of DJI, citing national security concerns tied to data privacy and the potential for Chinese government access to sensitive U.S. information. She has championed legislation aimed at restricting the federal use of DJI drones and has called for broader measures to curtail their dominance in the American market.

As New York’s Republican Congresswoman, Elise Stefanik in May 2024 introduced the Drones for First Responders (DFR) Act. She also introduced the far more controversial Countering CCP Drones Act. These efforts, if enacted into policy, could drive DJI’s affordable consumer models off U.S. shelves, forcing hobbyists and small businesses to turn to American-made alternatives that often come at a higher cost.

Price changes (and different options) for drones

Speaking of costs, the evolution of trade tensions and national security policies is set to mean big price changes for drones.

For consumers, the price of entry into the skies could rise. But at least on the enterprise side, things might be better under Trump as businesses may see opportunities to invest in homegrown innovations.

On the consumer side

Expect consumer drone prices to face significant upheaval. Calls to ban or restrict DJI drones have gained traction in recent years due to national security concerns, primarily surrounding allegations of data misuse and even human rights violations. While these claims are contested, tighter restrictions or outright bans could remove affordable DJI drones from the U.S. market.

The good news? That could pavee the way for American competitors. The bad news? With fewer manufacturers equipped to match DJI’s economies of scale, consumers may see higher prices for comparable alternatives.

On the enterprise side

It’s a different story in the enterprise drone sector.

Many commercial-grade drones used for industrial inspections, agriculture, and public safety are already produced by American drone companies like Skydio and Teal Drones. These manufacturers could benefit from a boost in demand as federal agencies and businesses turn to domestically produced hardware. Enterprise prices are less likely to fluctuate significantly, as these drones are often designed for specialized applications where cost takes a backseat to performance and reliability.

Whether these shifts encourage a thriving domestic drone industry or merely limit consumer choice remains to be seen.

An opportunity for more U.S. drone companies

Addressing such a gap will require more than policy. Strategic investments in domestic manufacturing and supply chains will be critical to reducing dependency on foreign components.

A compelling battle between innovation versus regulation

Trump’s pro-business stance might lead to calls for faster approval of new drone technologies. It should be interesting to see whether regulatory processes under the Department of Transportation (DOT) and the FAA will speed up.

“While the new administration is supportive of advances in the U.S. UAS industry’s capability to produce and keep up with the rest of the world, this may apply some pressure in some organizations,” McDanolds said.

Expect a seismic shift with Elon Musk taking on an advisory role in the Trump administration. Known for his disdain for bureaucratic inertia, Musk has reportedly urged the administration to accelerate the regulatory process, echoing his broader philosophy of innovation unimpeded by red tape. This push could profoundly impact the way drones are integrated into American airspace, with potential benefits and risks.

For example, Musk’s influence in the Trump presidency could lead to a more aggressive timeline for approving BVLOS technologies, which could be good for American drone delivery companies that cannot currently fly BVLOS.

However, moving faster may come at a cost. Critics argue that streamlining regulations without adequate testing could compromise public safety and privacy. Musk’s confidence in technology’s ability to self-regulate, while consistent with his ventures in electric vehicles and space exploration, may face greater challenges in the crowded, lower-altitude airspace where drones operate. The administration’s willingness to embrace this risk could reshape the public perception of drones, either as symbols of unbridled innovation or as harbingers of disruption.

And for what it’s worth, McDanolds says he doesn’t think Trump’s team will move fast and break everything.

“I believe that there are still the processes that are in place by the DOT and the FAA that will be followed, like the release of a national rule for BVLOS UAS operations where time, supporting data, and safety of further integration into the national airspace takes precedence over the speed in which it is done,” he said. “It is a complicated matter to consider all possible improvements and potential ramifications if not implemented carefully.”

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